In the wake of Pakistan’s 2024 general elections, key findings suggest possibility of a hung parliament, with independent candidates leading the tally at 38% of National Assembly seats. PML-N follows with 28%, and PPPP with 20%, fueling speculation of coalition formations.
Within this dynamic scenario, our analysis navigates through three plausible coalition scenarios. The first envisions a PML-N-led coalition, emphasizing continuity with PDM policies and anti-populist measures. An alternative scenario explores a PPPP-led coalition, balancing IMF conditions with a slight tilt towards moderate populism. Lastly, a PTI-led coalition hints at pro-populist moves, potentially resulting in a stalemate with the IMF.
The economic trajectory of Pakistan is closely tied to its political leadership, and has unfolded distinctly across various eras. In Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s third term, the nation witnessed positive economic indicators, including high GDP growth and low inflation. This era significantly contributed to KSE-100 returns, encompassing half of the gains from 2008 to 2023, reflecting a period of notable economic strength.
In comparison, Shehbaz Sharif’s-led PDM government portrayed a different economic scenario, grappling with challenges such as high inflation, currency volatility, and negative GDP growth.
The PPPP era, under PM Yousuf Raza Gilani, faced economic hurdles during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. This challenging period was followed by a relatively expansionary and populist policy regime during the short tenure of PM Raja Pervez Ashraf ahead of the 2013 polls. Imran Khan’s PTI government, achieving high GDP growth and low inflation amid Covid-19 challenges, relied on populist measures, resulting in fiscal deficit expansion.
These diverse coalition possibilities present a complex economic landscape, influencing the nation’s recovery post-election. As we explore and assess the intricacies of each coalition’s economic policy framework and its implications, the key findings shed light on the intricate path that Pakistan’s economic future may take under different leadership scenarios.
For further insights, key challenges, and our recommendations, check out our complete report on the outlook:
Malaika’s area of expertise spans around data science, statistical techniques and models, and developing efficient mathematical algorithms to solve financial problems. Her interests include economy, investment management, technology, and data.